War and shipping disruption: World Bank fears commodity prices may rise by up to 23 per cent in 2026
Photo: Collected
The World Bank has warned that the combined prices of all types of commodities on the global market could rise by up to 23 per cent in 2026. According to the organisation, the ongoing war in the Middle East, disruption to cargo shipping and several other geopolitical shocks are behind this. Its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report, released from Washington, said the situation could worsen if the crisis is prolonged and the conflict in the Middle East intensifies further. There are also fears that global financial markets could become even more volatile as Russia’s oil infrastructure suffers damage one after another.
Data from the half-yearly report, released on Wednesday, show that prices of energy, natural gas, food and metals rose significantly worldwide in 2026. Although overall commodity prices are expected to fall by up to 7 per cent the following year, ‘El Niño’ could wreck that relief. The strongest El Niño weather conditions since 1950 have been forecast. If food prices stay high due to natural disasters, inflation will rise further worldwide and central banks will be forced to adopt tight monetary policy.
Explaining the current market crisis, World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose said international commodity markets are having to cope with several major shocks at once. Higher energy costs and disruptions to trade supply together are pushing up prices of various types of goods at the same time. This is putting direct pressure on global inflation, food security and overall economic growth.
According to the report, global energy prices rose by 32 per cent in 2026, the highest since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. With oil production falling, the average price of Brent crude oil could rise to $92 per barrel. However, prices did not climb higher because global oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.5 per cent this year. This fall in demand is the third largest after the Covid pandemic of 2020 and the oil crisis of 1980. During this crisis, global oil stocks have fallen at an alarming rate. Global oil supply could fall by 5.2 per cent in 2026, the biggest drop in four decades excluding the 2020 recession.
On food security and agriculture, the report said food prices could rise by slightly more than 10 per cent in 2026 as grain transport is disrupted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Black Sea. In 2027 they will rise by more than another 7 per cent, bringing the two-year total to nearly 18 per cent. The report also highlighted a possible adverse scenario: if a record El Niño, disruption to grain supplies in the Black Sea, the spread of the Middle East war and damage to Russia’s oil infrastructure all happen at the same time, food prices could rise by a further 12 per cent above expectations. That could trigger a severe food crisis like that of the early 2010s, which pushed more than 40 million additional people into extreme poverty. Fertiliser prices will also rise by 14 per cent in 2026 due to higher urea prices, but could return to 2025 levels in 2027.
The heat of rising prices has also hit industry and safe-haven investment markets. Overall metal prices could rise by 25 per cent in 2026 to a new record. Strong demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles (EVs) and data centres, combined with supply shortages, could push prices of aluminium, copper and tin to all-time highs. Amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty, demand for gold and precious metals as safe assets has soared. As a result, precious metal prices could rise by up to 40 per cent in 2026, although they are likely to soften somewhat in 2027.
The World Bank released the report just two days before a meeting of foreign ministers of the G20, the group of the world’s 20 largest economies. The wars in the Middle East and Ukraine will be at the centre of discussions at the meeting, to be held in Atlanta, Georgia. The World Bank has confirmed it will prioritise support for the world’s poorest and most indebted countries. Earlier, 25 countries affected by the impact of the Middle East war were given $8.7 billion in concessional loans and other assistance. Of them, 19 countries took new assistance, while 10 countries restructured ongoing programmes to deal with the crisis.
Source: Channel NewsAsia
By the numbers
The picture becomes clearer when compared with the forecast of six months ago. According to a Reuters report dated 28 April 2026 (republished by Kitco), the World Bank’s April Commodity Markets Outlook had forecast a 24 per cent rise in energy prices and a 16 per cent rise in overall commodity prices in 2026.
The same report had put the average price of Brent crude in 2026 at $86 per barrel, up from $69 in 2025. It had also projected a 31 per cent rise in fertiliser prices, driven by a 60 per cent jump in urea prices, Reuters reported.
Sources
Original report: Bangladesh Pratidin
Background sources: Reuters (Kitco), 28 April 2026
