Photo: Collected
The Republicans’ popularity has declined, the situation over the Gaza war is not favourable, and the US economy is also under pressure. Even amid this, President Donald Trump has found in the election campaign an issue that could help the Republicans turn around in the midterm elections – the debate over transgender rights. News agency AFP reported this.
Transgender people are a very small part of the population of the United States. However, the debate over their rights, particularly the matter of a small number of transgender athletes taking part in women’s sports competitions, had turned into a big political issue in Trump’s hands before as well. Trump claims it can play an important role for the Republicans this time too.
At a recent rally, Trump said speaking against transgender athletes is ‘one of our most effective election statements of all time.’ He added, ‘I like to raise the matter about a week before the election.’ Trump claimed he was ‘extremely worried’ out of fear that the Democrats might suddenly withdraw their support for transgender people.
On several important aspects of the transgender issue, opinion polls show comparatively more support for the Republicans’ position. These matters give rise to intense emotion and debate in the United States and generate heated discussion online and on partisan television channels.
During the fiercely contested presidential election against Kamala Harris two years ago, Trump’s campaign aired a highly effective television advertisement. In it, Trump’s Democratic rival was portrayed as a supporter of taxpayer-funded gender transition treatment or surgery in prisons. The last sentence of the advertisement was widely discussed: ‘Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you.’
According to many experts, that advertisement played a role in changing the course of the election in several of the most competitive states. Gavin Newsom, the Democratic governor of California and an open critic of Trump, said, ‘It was brutal, it was devastating. The advertisement was very effective.’
From a large part of the 2010s to the beginning of the 2020s, the Democrats had been giving strong support on various social justice issues. Through this, alongside mobilising supporters, they achieved big political successes on matters such as legalising same-sex marriage. However, they faced widespread opposition on the transgender issue.
Even after campaigning on these matters year after year, the Democrats could not bring about a big change in American public opinion. Rather, some analysts think it has created various controversial statements and issues for Republican campaigners to make use of.
A 2025 survey by the non-partisan Pew Research Center found that 73 per cent of American adults expressed discomfort about transgender athletes taking part in sports teams that do not match their sex assigned at birth. And 66 per cent said transgender athletes should be required to choose teams according to their sex assigned at birth.
Kurt Bardella, a former Republican official and currently an adviser to the Democrats, told AFP, ‘I think the Democrats have made the old mistake of being needlessly afraid of themselves. In trying to please everyone, they have actually pushed most Americans away from themselves.’
Veteran Republican strategist Doug Heye told AFP, ‘The Democrats forget how many people they are annoying on some matters of this kind.’ He further said, ‘Just by looking at the opinion polls on this matter, one can understand that the matter is fairly broadly in favour of the Republicans. And this is why they are campaigning so aggressively on the issue.’
As campaigning reaches its peak ahead of the November midterm elections, the Republicans are once again bringing the transgender issue to the fore. A report by Axios said that, to bring Republican voters to the polling centres, Elon Musk’s ‘America PAC’ has started airing extensive advertisements criticising the Democrats’ unpopular position on the transgender issue.
James Talarico, a Democrat contesting for the US Senate from Texas, is currently in a tough electoral fight. While a state lawmaker in 2021 and 2023, he had voted against restrictions imposing a requirement for transgender athletes to compete according to their sex assigned at birth.
However, like many other Democratic candidates contesting in the current election cycle, Talarico too is now saying he is ‘opposed to the participation of transgender athletes in girls’ sports if safety or fairness is put at risk’.
Democratic strategist Bardella has expressed frustration at the issue coming to the fore again. Because, according to various estimates, only about one per cent of the adult population of the United States identify themselves as transgender.
